Thursday, November 3, 2011

Harsh Herald

The New Zealand Herald's website today has been showing big headlines on how Labour is losing. Notice the pissed off looking Goff-face and the smug smiley Key-face. 

Anyone else thinks this is a little biased? As much as it works in my own favor, still looks a bit fishy. Plus, what people tend to forget is how polls often work compared to election results. The National Party often polls high before an election before dropping in results on the day. The Labour Party tends to do worse in the pre-election polls than in the election results. The ACT Party especially polls low before the day and gets nice numbers on election night. This is where I see a lot of smug punditry coming from the media about this sort of thing, the doom and gloom scaremongering that ACT is going to be history is a result of the low polling by idiots that have learned nothing from history! The ACT Party will still need Epsom to get a seat in the house, but the parading over ACT's defeat is awfully presumptuous, and potentially wrong. 

The article shown above features the line "Labour's fall of 1.2 points over the week may not be much of a fall but it will be a psychological blow for the party to fall below 30 per cent." I get the impression they're trying to execute that psychological blow. I have written before about how polls are a particularly shady business, where timing and results are designed to manipulate both the public and the candidates.

The Herald DigiPoll has shown some almost unrealistic results. Apparently the Green Party is over 10% of party votes, which looks awfully high, so too does the Māori Party on 1.9%. NZ First, ACT, United Future, and Mana all look very low, with 1.7%, 0.9%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively. They boast about Colin Craig's Conservative Party (CCCP for short) polling at 1.1%, ahead of more established parties. 

This doesn't worry me at all. This poll is ridiculous to take seriously, as it makes no mention of electorate votes, or the proportion that each would then get in parliament. Assuming John Banks takes Epsom and Peter Dunne gets Ōhariu, then ACT and United Future respectively are safe. Hone Harawira will likely take Te Tai Tokerau to stay in, while Colin Craig will likely lose in Rodney and stay out of parliament. 

Moral of the story: Don't believe anything you read, especially if it's in the Herald, and don't you dare read Stuff!

1 comment:

Thanks for commenting and joining the discussion! Remember to keep the language classy, and I'm a stickler for grammar :P